ViewPoints

Q1 Commentary – Brighter Days Ahead

The promise of warmer weather shines a more optimistic light on the released reports. This has, thus far, proven true moving from February to March to April and expectations for the rest of the year are likewise more optimistic. Here we will review the first quarter of 2024 and finish by offering our outlook for the rest of 2024.

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Clinton S. McGarvin, CFA
Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

We know in the Pacific Northwest, rain is a fact of life, more so in the winter and spring than in the summer, it does rain in the summer but that is not the normal day. A normal summer gives us lots of sun with rain occasionally, whereas winter supplies us with lots of clouds and rain and bits of sun. Over a full summer we are not disappointed over the amount of sun we get, this is the “long-term”, and this is climate.

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Transitioning to a New Era

Some of us know all too well that we may look back to December and draw inspiration.  There are mean things happening in this world, so we need to feed positivity.  Some feel like inflation is telling consumers, “You belong to me”. Haters gonna hate, but we all need to find the strength to shake it off.

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Stuart B. Allen, JD, CTFA
Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

The past two weeks were full of reports on the current state and outlook for the U.S. and global economies. Perhaps most importantly, the updated inflation data gave a more optimistic outlook for future Fed moves. Also, the key U.S. service sector activity index unexpectedly improved in November.

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Clinton S. McGarvin, CFA
Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

October has the reputation as a terror for the capital markets. October 1929 is seen as the start of the bear market of the Great Depression. October 1987 holds the record for the largest single day plunge when the market fell more than 22%. Leading into October this year, there were reasons to believe we could see a return of the October Terrors.

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Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

Last week’s economic reports were highlighted by Friday’s personal consumption expenditures report. This report showed consumer spending remained strong, but inflation, excluding food and energy, was below expectations. Also released last week was the final estimate for second quarter gross domestic product growth and initial jobless claims, both below expectations.

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Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

Economic forecasts are known to be wrong most of the time. Even the best forecasters suffer through periods of incorrect predictions. There are many reasons why this is the case. Sometimes the forecaster does not include needed data, a surprise event, either positive or negative, could move the economy away from the expected path and overconfidence of the forecaster.

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Focused Investing: Economy & Markets Update

Economic reports that were published last week gave us a glimpse of the health of the economy and maybe an indication of what the Fed will do at their meeting this week. Both consumer and business reports suggest the economy is performing better than expected. On the other hand, inflation exceeded expectations, which is not a positive for the outlook. In total, though, the reports painted an optimistic picture of the economy.

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Pruning and Planning – Not Just for Roses

During my journey to becoming a trust officer, I spent some of my time volunteering for local organizations.  One of my favorites is still the Peninsula Park Rose Garden in North Portland. As the summer roses bloom and fade, it’s time to think about what we can do to ease our financial and philanthropic planning for the rest of the year.

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Kate McGinn, ATFA