ViewPoints

2019: Is the Economic Cycle Turning Downward?

The Yield Curve, The U.S. Budget Deficit, Market Volatility and Asset Valuations, and Differentiation: Year-End 2018 provided significant insights into the implications and opportunities for financial assets in 2019. Our Senior Portfolio Manager Julie Bryan addresses the question: Is the Economic Cycle Turning Downward?

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Julie C. Bryan, MBA, CFA
Rising Interest Rates Will Continue to Challenge Market Returns

Despite a more tenuous global backdrop, the prospects for the U.S. economy remain positive and supports the case for higher interest rates. A higher interest rate backdrop will likely result in further market volatility as stock valuation expectations adjust to interest rate moves. This month, Julio Quinteros discusses a rising interest rate environment as a significant variable that limits market returns, and could spill into other areas of the U.S. economy.

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Julio C. Quinteros, Jr.
What to do with my low basis stock?

Private investors in the United States hold an estimated $6.1 trillion in unrealized capital gains.  But why? Taxes, of course!  This month, Allen Trust Company’s Tax Specialist, Stephen Paul, discusses the options available to owners of low basis stock and other highly appreciated assets.

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Stephen A. Paul, CPA, CFP
U.S. Economic Growth Undeterred

Notwithstanding the potential economic risks, both U.S. and global manufacturing output have remained in a solid long-run growth trend, and U.S. inflation has remained modest.

This month Allen Trust Company’s Senior Portfolio Manager, Julie Bryan, CFA, discusses U.S. economic trends and views on asset allocation.

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Increase Volatility Creates Investment Opportunities

Through the first half of March it is now clear that increased volatility in financial markets is a constant to take into account and balance as part of our investment considerations. While we acknowledge that risk factors are higher, volatility on its own does not give us pause. We remain focused on long-term investment opportunities. This month, Julio Quinteros discusses the rise in volatility and resulting ebb and flow of markets. Despite higher volatility, we remain grounded in our investment approach.

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Julio C. Quinteros, Jr.
2018 Outlook: Lightning Strikes

2018 has begun with increasing volatility in the financial markets. Global economic growth has increased at the same time that upside interest rate risk is rumbling. This creates both opportunities and increasing risks around the world. While volatility in the financial markets was subdued in 2017, 2018 has begun with a bang. This month, Julie Bryan discusses some of the levers that may drive continued volatility in the equity and fixed income markets going forward.

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Blockchain’s Rise Should Benefit Select Tech Names

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have entrenched themselves as front and center topics that are reaching an ever broader audience as new highs in cryptocurrency values are breached. Although crypto assets receive headline attention, we see the underlying blockchain technology as the more important driver for long-term investments in tech.

 This month, Julio Quinteros discusses the rapid ascent of crypto assets and blockchain. His focus is on the long-term impact that blockchain could have on Tech investments.

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Julio C. Quinteros, Jr.