ViewPoints

Second Quarter Commentary

We listen to, read over and over, and see that when interest rates increase, the economy slows down, albeit with a lag. The above graph shows this is frequently true. The lag happens because it takes about 9-months for the rate changes to take full effect in the economy. The Fed started increasing rates in March 2022, quickly followed by predictions of a recession by the end of 2022.

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Alaska Trusts – A Wealth of Benefits

Alaska's trust laws are among the most advantageous in the U.S., enabling estate planning and tax savings benefits not seen in other states. In our most recent newsletter, John Chabreck, tax specialist, further describes why you may want Alaska as your situs.

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Guest User
April Showers. May Flowers. Financial planning, more than numbers.

In April, we showered you with financial planning literacy.  Let May be the month you are inspired by the flowers. Financial planning, simplified, is an act of creating a strategic plan to reflect and achieve your ideal life.  Just like the many flower varietals, each plan is unique and will look vastly different, as each person or household holds their own unique: perspective of the world, values, needs, definition of success, and of course money. 

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Declining Confidence in the Banking System

The effect of bank runs will typically play out over weeks and months and the expectation is the deposit run on Silicon Valley and Signature Banks will be no different. The collapse of these two banks does not equal that of the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, but the underlying reason is the same: an evaporation of confidence in first, the banks themselves and, second, in the banking system overall.

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Clinton S. McGarvin, CFA
Structure Matters- A 2008 writing that rings true today

Over the years we have emphasized Allen Trust Company's status as a locally-owned independent trust company, a structure whose virtues were perhaps underappreciated by some until now. In a time when the giants of the financial world are falling hard and fast, we wanted to reassure you of our firm's inherent stability and soundness. The following describes guidelines adopted by the State of Oregon for regulation of trust companies and the protections which that framework ensures:

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SECURE Act 2.0- How it Affects RMDs

In December 2022, we released our monthly viewpoints article which detailed the different rules and regulations surrounding Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) and how the SECURE Act impacted them. A few short weeks later, new legislation was passed via the SECURE Act 2.0 which improved upon its predecessor by further modifying some of the rules and regulations surrounding RMDs, retirement accounts such as IRAs and 401(k)s, and much more.

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The Ripples of SVB

Friday morning, the FDIC took control of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) following a massive outflow of deposits. SVB’s customers were largely start-up tech companies with a high need for cash to fund operations. These companies held deposits with SVB but the high need for cash required an outflow of deposits from SVB. To meet the deposit outflows, SVB was forced to sell bonds from their securities portfolio and within the last few weeks, SVB sold $21 billion of Treasuries with an attached loss of $1.8 billion.

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Clinton S. McGarvin, CFA
Growing Relationships with Finances

Have you ever tried to bring a tree to life, from seed until maturity? Constant and thoughtful care is essential to the growth and wellbeing of the tree. You are required to start with the basics by establishing the best sunlight, soil, and water conditions for the seed to sprout into a seedling and continue its growth.

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Tax Deadlines and What you Need to Know

As I sit here typing this draft, the IRS released notification that they’ll start processing returns on January 20th, which I suppose makes it official.  It’s time to wrap up the books for 2022 and get to work on our taxes.  Here are some important things to keep in mind for tax year 2022.

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Tara Denton
More Optimism

In January’s ViewPoints, I offered an outlook for a mild recession and struggling equity markets the first half of the year. I pointed out that the outlook was likely to be proven wrong partly because at least one unforecastable event is likely. I did not note that the forecasts could be wrong simply because it’s wrong.

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Optimism in an Unforecastable Future

The end of a year invariably brings forecasts of how the economy and markets will perform in the coming year. The forecasts include estimates of gross domestic product growth, the price level equity markets and interest rates in twelve months. With forecasters being so wrong in the past, could they be wrong again?

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Clinton S. McGarvin, CFA
'Tis the Season for Gifting

‘Tis the Season

Following the official closure of the 2021 Tax Season (October 17th), we quickly move into the “Most Wonderful Time of the Year”. We hope that this Holiday season is a more cheerful and happier one. Before your schedules become booked with festivities, travel, shopping, and ringing in the New Year; consider these gifting options to make your 2023 even merrier:

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Krystal C. Lee, MBA, CFP®