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ViewPoints
The promise of warmer weather shines a more optimistic light on the released reports. This has, thus far, proven true moving from February to March to April and expectations for the rest of the year are likewise more optimistic. Here we will review the first quarter of 2024 and finish by offering our outlook for the rest of 2024.
Your personal return is due by Monday April 15, 2024. You can request for an extension to push the filing deadline back to October 15, 2024, by filing Form 4868. You can do this by certified mail or through your tax preparer. Just remember, you still must pay the tax due by the original April 15th deadline. Unfortunately, an extension to file isn’t an extension to pay.
As tax laws continue to become more complicated, the demand for CPAs continues to rise. At the same time, this industry has seen a significant percentage of its workforce leave in the last five years.
Recently we wrote comparing investing with climate and weather in the Pacific Northwest, how unpredictable the weather is, and how far more predictable the climate is. The same holds true for short-term and long-term investing.
We know in the Pacific Northwest, rain is a fact of life, more so in the winter and spring than in the summer, it does rain in the summer but that is not the normal day. A normal summer gives us lots of sun with rain occasionally, whereas winter supplies us with lots of clouds and rain and bits of sun. Over a full summer we are not disappointed over the amount of sun we get, this is the “long-term”, and this is climate.
Some of us know all too well that we may look back to December and draw inspiration. There are mean things happening in this world, so we need to feed positivity. Some feel like inflation is telling consumers, “You belong to me”. Haters gonna hate, but we all need to find the strength to shake it off.
The past two weeks were full of reports on the current state and outlook for the U.S. and global economies. Perhaps most importantly, the updated inflation data gave a more optimistic outlook for future Fed moves. Also, the key U.S. service sector activity index unexpectedly improved in November.
In this edition of our ViewPoints, we delve into some essential glossary terms that pertain to our comprehensive range of services. Use this as a resource when reading our future blogs and newsletters where we explore additional concepts and updates.
After a brief hiatus, we return following a week with few economic and market reports. That is not to say that the week was without news, most notably when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke Thursday and spooked the markets with the comment that the Fed is a long way from done in its fight against inflation.
Focused Investing
The biggest news this week is Wednesday’s announcement from the Federal Reserve about the direction of interest rates, will they cut, raise, or hold. Last week’s inflation data strongly suggests the Fed will hold rates unchanged, but the weakness in the other data points is fuel to the fire that the Fed needs a cut to keep the economy on a smooth path.
The second week of February means the end of baseball’s Hot Stove League, or the offseason, when trades and free agents get new- and sometimes sizeable- contracts and marks the start of Spring Training. The new contracts and trades are often based on historical numbers of the players and projections that those players will live up to or improve on the historical numbers.
The goal in every sports league is to be among the best teams and make it into the playoffs and ultimately win the leagues championship. Since 2019, the Los Angeles Dodgers own the most overall wins in baseball and were the favorite or one of the two favorites to win the World Series each year.
We know in the Pacific Northwest, rain is a fact of life, more so in the winter and spring than in the summer, it does rain in the summer but that is not the normal day. A normal summer gives us lots of sun with rain occasionally, whereas winter supplies us with lots of clouds and rain and bits of sun. Over a full summer we are not disappointed over the amount of sun we get, this is the “long-term”, and this is climate.
The past two weeks were full of reports on the current state and outlook for the U.S. and global economies. Perhaps most importantly, the updated inflation data gave a more optimistic outlook for future Fed moves. Also, the key U.S. service sector activity index unexpectedly improved in November.
After a brief hiatus, we return following a week with few economic and market reports. That is not to say that the week was without news, most notably when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke Thursday and spooked the markets with the comment that the Fed is a long way from done in its fight against inflation.
Inflation is the driving force behind the rate increases that the Federal Reserve has presented since March 2022. Inflation peaked in summer 2022, and it has been cut by more than half since the Fed raised rates from the range of 0.0%-0.25% to the range of 5.25%-5.5%, a more than 20-fold increase.
October has the reputation as a terror for the capital markets. October 1929 is seen as the start of the bear market of the Great Depression. October 1987 holds the record for the largest single day plunge when the market fell more than 22%. Leading into October this year, there were reasons to believe we could see a return of the October Terrors.
Last week’s economic reports were highlighted by Friday’s personal consumption expenditures report. This report showed consumer spending remained strong, but inflation, excluding food and energy, was below expectations. Also released last week was the final estimate for second quarter gross domestic product growth and initial jobless claims, both below expectations.